Crocs (CROX) is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) is a leading footwear brand with a focus on comfort and style. The name is very popular and their unique clog style is recognized all over the world.
Originally, the Crocs brand found popularity with boaters, nurses and anyone that was one their feet all day. Now the company offers sandals wedges, flips, slides clogs and other shoes under the Crocs brand name.
The stock has been on a tear since the COVID lows when it was under $10. From there, the CROX crept higher and accelerated into 2021, hitting a high last year at $183.88. Like other stocks, the name saw some aggressive selling into the end of the year, seeing a drawdown of over 35%.
A recent preliminary guide and upgrade helped the stock shoot higher by 15% off the recent lows. Investors are now faced with the decision to cut and run or see if the momentum continues.
About the Company
Crocs was founded in 1999,employs 4,600 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado. The company sells its products in approximately 80 countries through wholesalers, retail stores, e-commerce sites, and third-party marketplaces.
CROX has a market cap of $7.4 billion and has Zacks Style Scores of “B” in Growth and “A” in Momentum.
Q3 Earnings and Preliminary Guidance
In late October, Crocs reported Q3 earnings, seeing a 30% EPS beat. Revenues came in above expectations, while gross margins were up +670 bps y/y, wholesale revenues were up 88.2% y/y and direct-to-consumer revenue was up 60.4% y/y.
The company raised its mid-point FY21 revenue +62-65% and guided initial FY22 revenue above 20%. The stock reacted well, moving to all-time highs in just a few days.
This week, Crocs released some preliminary Q4 numbers. They see revenue up 42% y/y and raised FY21 revenue to +67% y/y from the prior 62-65%. The company affirmed FY22 and reported that HEYDUDE, a recently acquired footwear company, would be immediately accretive to revenue growth.
Looking over the last 7 days, we are seeing estimates start to tick higher. For next quarter, numbers have gone from $1.46 to $1.59, or 10%. For next year, estimates have been raised to $9.87 from $9.38, or 5%.
“Top Idea For 2022”
One firm hiking estimates is Piper Sandler. After preliminary guidance the firm labeled CROX its top idea for 2022. They took their price target to $246 from $215 and said Crocs will be one of the most impressive consumer growth stories for several years to come. The analyst raised Q4 estimates aggressively from $1.42 to $2.01.
Piper isn’t the only one that likes the stock, with Baird recently reiterating their Outperform rating and $250 price target.
The selloff starting back in November was pretty brutal and any investors trying to buy the dips were faced with more selling. The stock broke the 200-day moving average in December, rallied back above, only to break again last week.
But now, the stock has reclaimed the 200-day and 21-day, a sign that the momentum is changing. Additionally, a Fibonacci retracement level drawn from before the April 2021 breakout to highs gave us a 61.8% retracement at $115.This level has been defended twice, showing Fib buyers stepping in.
If the stock can continue to rally, investors should look for resistance at the 50-day moving average just above $150. If the bulls can break that area, the move Piper is looking for above $200 likely happens
This growing brand has been outperforming since COVID started. After defending the $115 level the stock has bounced 15%, but there is still more meat on the bone as many analysts have targets over $200.
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